Cooperstown has four new members, and I briefly scribbled about what some current Cleveland players are doing to help their (potential) Hall of Fame cases: I want to broaden my scope and ask a question: how many active players will enter Cooperstown some day? This exercise stretches from the easy to the difficult; there will be some players whom I could not fathom in the Hall of Fame getting in who are playing currently. Careers are long, and we lack a crystal ball to see where young players will wind up in even a few years time.
But I love prognosticating, especially about the Hall of Fame. So here are my guesses into the future. I will break this into four categories: In Cooperstown’s Waiting Room, Cooperstown Locks, In the Midst, & Speculating. I will explain each section briefly before I include the players in each category.
In Cooperstown’s Waiting Room
This category is for players who, if they retired today, would get in the Hall of Fame and are at the end of the line. I don’t think any of these players will play for more than a year or two, and it’s obvious they will get inducted. The difference between this category and the next is this: I suspect all of them will retire in no more than three years.
Kershaw is an interesting case. He’s still an incredibly effective pitcher when healthy, but he’s rarely healthy these days. I think he would have retired at the end of 2023 had he not posted his absolute worst postseason start ever against the Diamondbacks. I do not think Clayton wants to end his career like that, so he signed another one year deal with the Dodgers, but has yet to make his 2024 debut. The only milestone in front of Kershaw is 3,000 strikeouts, which I suspect he will reach before the year is out.
Like Kershaw: the overall story of Scherzer’s career has been written. He was the promising but frustrating young thrower in Detroit, he became the superstar in Washington and won a World Series, and is now something of a journeyman going to Los Angeles, New York and now Texas (where he won another ring). He could be on the move again at the deadline although he claims he wants to stay put. He’s reached 3,000 strikeouts, I suppose if he’s healthy for a few more seasons he could make a run at 250 (but that’s a stretch). He’s a lock for Cooperstown, it’s just a matter of when Mad Max decides he’s had enough.
In an era where starting pitchers have short careers, get injured all the time, and go fewer innings: it’s interesting to me that the three ‘locks’ for Cooperstown are all long time starters who have (or will) reach 3,000 strikeouts and all won three Cy Young Awards. Verlander has the most impressive career statistics: he’s struck out the most batters and won the most games. At 41 he’s also the oldest, and he’s been both injured and comparatively ineffective for Verlander. He’s 40 wins shy of 300 making that milestone increasingly unlikely, but that’s basically the only thing left Justin could do to solidify his legacy.
Cooperstown Locks
This category is for players who, if they retired today, would get inducted into the Hall of Fame but they are more than three years away from retirement. There is much more to talk about, the paint on their canvas is far from dry. But we can already see the beautiful painting which will hang some day in the Hall of Fame portrait gallery. This makes them different than the first three players I discussed, but only just.
Mookie may be the best player in baseball not named Shohei Ohtani, and he’s been absolutely superb both for Boston and for Los Angeles. He’s won one MVP so far, although he easily could have won several more, and he’s won two World Series rings. He’s collected six Gold Gloves and six Silver Slugger awards. This year he switched to shortstop because the Dodgers were desperate…and he’s still one of the best offensive players in baseball and a potential Gold Glove winner (although this is less likely now due to injury).
The only ‘knock’ against Betts entering the Hall of Fame now is his career length. He ‘only’ has 1,500 hits, 262 home runs, and 181 stolen bases. That’s light for a Hall of Famer…but at this juncture that feels so petty. Betts dominated the American League before the Red Sox foolishly traded him to Boston for a bag of balls, and he proceeded to dominate the National League too. He’s been the second best player in baseball since 2016 behind only Shohei Ohtani. That’s a Hall of Famer. We’re just watching to see whether he breaks records, reaches 3,000 hits or more, breaks 10 Gold Gloves and wins a few more MVPs.
When the Braves decided to let Freddie Freeman walk, and trade for Matt Olson to replace him at first base, I was angry at baseball. How does Major League Baseball let a team like the Braves walk away from their superstar player who defined baseball in Atlanta for nearly a decade? But for my frustration: the Braves had a case for why they swapped out Freeman for Olson: Freeman was going to be 32, and while he certainly defined Atlanta baseball: how good could Freddie be in his mid-30s? Sure he could continue on being one of the best hitters in baseball, but why take the risk when Olson was younger than Freeman and a better bet? From the pure strategic logic of winning…I get it. Olson probably was a better bet than Freeman, but so far I feel like they made a mistake.
Freeman left the Braves as an MVP and World Series hero. He proceeded to lead the league in on-base percentage and runs scored for the Dodgers and has been a superb hitter for LA the past three seasons. At 34 he remains a potent offensive threat, and he’s got a good chance to reach 3,000 hits and 400 home runs. There is not much left for Freeman to prove, it’s just about padding his statistics at this point.
Goldy is in the midst of his worst season, so it’s strange to place him here in some ways, but I would ask: what more does Paul need to accomplish to get to Cooperstown? The guy’s won his MVP, he’s 17th in JAWS for first baseman (comfortably between Eddie Murray and Hank Greenberg/Mark McGwire), and has been one of the game’s best offensive and defensive first basemen for over a decade? The only complaint I can see with his case is he has not reached many major milestones. He will reach 2,000 hits this year, which is something, but he does not have even 400 home runs (yet), and 500 seems out of reach if his age 36 season is indicative of his future offensive potential.
Personally I am skeptical this is the end for Paul; he should get at least one or two more chances to prove he’s got something left in the tank, so his career numbers will round out a little (400 should be reachable if nothing else), and I think by the time Golfy reaches the Hall of Fame ballot how we view Hall of Famers will change: his JAWS ranking will matter more than his career statistics.
There is not much left to say about Mike Trout. I could try to rekindle the awe I felt watching Trout as a young man, or lament on what could have been if not for injury. But I prefer to simply remark that Trout was one of the all time best players in baseball for many years. He won three MVP Awards along with numerous other accolades. He could easily have won nine straight MVP Awards (part of me thinks if you had asked voters to vote only for a set of statistics and no name: Trout would have won nine straight MVPs). I hope Trout can rekindle some semblance of health to reach the career statistics that would allow him to be remembered alongside Henry Aaron, Willie Mays and Babe Ruth as the best of all time.
In the Midst
This category is for players who would not earn induction if they retired today but are in the midst of finalizing their cases. They are anywhere from 5-8 years away from retirement, are either still in their peaks (or just outside of it) and seem likely to do what is necessary for them to eventually earn induction.
Altuve has a lot going for him: he probably has the best shot of any active player to make 3,000 hits and remains a very good hitter for Houston. He’s spent his entire career in Houston and has won both an MVP award and won two World Series. At 34 he remains a .300 hitter, which stands out even in today’s day in age where batting average has lost its prominence. But Altuve has problems too: he did win that 2017 World Series, but that World Series is tainted by the electronic sign stealing scandal. He’s still booed relentlessly wherever he goes, and I do not think people will have forgotten that scandal when he retires. Carlos Beltran has not been inducted into Cooperstown yet, almost entirely because of his association with that scandal.
But I think Altuve is going to have such a good case it’s overlooked. Winning the 2023 World Series helps a bit, but I think Altuve is going to finish with 3,000 hits and his career is going to look not just Hall of Fame worthy, but inner circle, all time great worthy, by the time his career is done. If he’s still hitting at a 130 OPS+ pace at 34, and he keeps it up (and he shows no signs of slowing down…yet) I imagine he’ll force the electorate’s hand.
Arenado has 10 Gold Gloves, and an MVP. He’s really close…but he’s still just short. He needs to pad out his career statistics to get into the Hall, and he needs to age a little more gracefully than he has so far this season. I am still bullish on Arenado, as he has a few more years left on his contract to right the ship, but the weight of his career defensive excellence will, I think, get him over the top at the end of the day.
It would help if the Cardinals got their act together.
After finally winning a Cy Young Award Cole started 2024 on the injured list and has not pitched like himself lately, but he’s also the only starting pitcher outside of Kershaw, Scherzer and Verlander whom I think has a great shot at the Hall of Fame at this juncture. His 148 wins won't cut it, and he’ll need to stay healthy enough to reach 3,000 strikeouts, but both milestones appear in reach to me. I further think in an age bereft of great starters Cole will stand out as the best among an anemic group of starters; similar to how Jack Morris finally got inducted, except Cole is a much better pitcher than Morris was in his prime.
I remember when the Nationals drafted Harper and how big a deal it was, and when Harper debuted at 19. He and Stephen Strasburg formed an impressive duo which should have defined Washington baseball for all time. It was not to be, Harper left for Philadelphia, Washington won a World Series on the elbow of Strasburg (who has not been forced into retirement due to injury), and Harper now leads a different crew. He’s not 19 anymore, but he has won two MVPs and a Rookie of the Year. I don’t think Harper would get inducted right now, and it’s not hard to see why: he was inconsistent as a young player. He won an MVP at age 22 leading baseball in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage and hitting 42 homers. The next season he batted .243, and looked lost. He was hurt the next year, and for three seasons spent time either hurt or struggling. He batted .265 for five seasons and while he was clearly a great hitter: he wasn’t the superstar he was at 22. He surged back at 28, won another MVP and has been a superstar ever since.
I believe in Harper’s recent offensive pace, and he’s moved out of right field to first base where he’s proven adept defensively. He has a lot of time remaining before his contract is out and I suspect he’ll finish his career with an impressive array of career statistics, and perhaps another MVP.
I was tempted to put Judge in the ‘Cooperstown Lock’ category but I can’t do that because he technically has not even played 10 seasons yet, which means he would be ineligible for the Hall of Fame if he retired today (same with Ohtani). But Judge’s accomplishments are stunning: he holds the AL single season home run record, and is on his way to a second MVP. He won Rookie of the Year, and looks like an unstoppable offensive force. My crazy prediction is he becomes the next member of the 600 home run club.
But even if Judge fails to reach those lofty heights, he’s been the best hitter in baseball the past three years. He could become the first player to hit 60 home runs in a season multiple times without the use of steroids. He’s simply too remarkable a hitter to avoid honoring.
Both of these players, in my view, are already Hall of Famers. They rank 4th & 5th respectively on the all-time saves list. I struggle to see a good reason to put Billy Wagner and Lee Smith in the Hall of Fame, and leave Kimbrel & Jansen out. I think both will almost assuredly reach 500 career saves, making them the 3rd and 4th players to do so, and both played prominent roles on World Series winning clubs. At some point the weight of their longevity is going to sink in and people will start recognizing both relievers for their career accomplishments. Of the two I think Jansen will find it a touch easier to get in; I think he will age better than Kimbrel, but Kimbrel was the more impressive closer when he debuted. Both will earn induction eventually.
Here’s my crazy prediction: Lindor is going to the Hall of Fame…and he will wear an Indians cap. Why? He may spend a vast majority of his career in New York, but I don’t think he’ll finish his career there: at some point I think the Mets will have to trade Francisco, and by the time his career is done people will remember him far more for his electric start in Cleveland when he made the postseason every year (and made all those All-Star games, and won all those Gold Gloves, and surprisingly hit 30 home runs) than his time with the Mets. The Mets are a mess, and if they stay a mess I could see Lindor demanding a trade (or them trading him plus cash to refurbish their farm system).
We’ll see, it’s a dream. Either way, I think Lindor is the kind of player who will age gracefully and pile up some impressive statistics which will make it impossible for him to be ignored, even if he winds up spending most of his career for an organization which struggles to find consistent success like the Mets.
People compared him to Brooks Robinson for a bit in the beginning of his career, but I do not know what to make of Machado. He was great as a young man in Baltimore, and got shipped over to San Diego where he signed a monster contract but has not lived up to it. He’s over 30, and plays the field less now than he did in his youth, and has not been a Gold Glove defender in nearly a decade. He’s also not as great a hitter as he once was either. He’s 31, and ranks 20th all time in JAWS already, so I think he will find a way to make his mark regardless, but the shape of his career is more muddled now than it was a few years ago.
I’ve written a lot about Jose already, but needless to say: I think he’s already in the midst of a Hall of Fame career, and the big thing he needs now is volume. He needs more hits, he needs more home runs, he needs to pad his career totals, so when he goes before the voters they won't be able to say no. Jose has been the third best player in baseball since 2016 behind Ohtani and Betts. He’s been the best infielder in baseball during that time. He will not spend time anywhere else but Cleveland in his career, and will likely finish his career with all the records for the franchise. He will pass Thome in homers at some point, he’ll pass Nap Lajoie in hits at some point, and he’ll pass Lajoie in WAR too. Lofton’s stolen bases may be out of reach, but I think he gets to 400. He will be among the few 300-300 players in baseball history.
As an avowed Corey Kluber fan it pains me to write that, in the end, Chris Sale will become the second greatest pitcher of his generation behind Clayton Kershaw. I strongly felt Kluber was every bit as good as Sale in their primes, and while Kluber won the Cy Young awards I felt Sale got all the admiration. When Sale got traded to Boston and injuries piled up: I felt his career was largely done. Now, after getting traded to Atlanta, he appears revitalized. It’s still a long road for Sale: I think he needs to somehow win 70 more games and get to 200 in order to have a serious chance at induction, but that seems achievable. At 35 his stuff looks as good as it ever has, and he plays for a great team. I think he’ll get there, and he will finally get a Cy Young this year as well.
Speculating
This is a category for young players who, in all honesty, are too far away to seriously predict earning induction into Cooperstown. However, I feel they all have things going for them which will get them over the top.
The biggest thing with Acuna is: he’s already banked a ton, and he’s only 26. He’s a four time All-Star, he’s an MVP, he took home the Rookie of the Year Award, and he’s locked into a long term deal with one of baseball’s preeminent teams. He’s got a ton going for him, and it’s much easier to make the Hall of Fame after a hot start than to make up ground. For every Adrian Beltre & Randy Johnson, who were better in his 30s than his 20s, there are numerous Ken Griffey’s who were amazing in their 20s before age took its toll. Acuna is one of the best players in baseball, and he has a lot of time to add onto his case. He’s hurt this year, but I see nothing in his profile that makes me think he’ll slow down.
I am calling it now: I think Clase will get to Cooperstown. The reasons why are simple. First, his stuff is so electric I think it will age well. He throws his cutter over 100 MPH with movement and pinpoint control, even if his stuff declines naturally it should remain more than good enough to stay elite for years to come. Second, he’s off to a tremendous start and will lead baseball in saves for a third year in a row and has more saves than almost any other closer at his age. Getting a head start is a big part of getting into the Hall of Fame. Overall, he’s going to get the opportunities and his stuff is so good that I think we’ll be talking about him in a decade, and he’ll still be closing games somewhere (even if it’s not for Cleveland).
On the one hand: Adley Rutschman is not the biggest superstar on the Baltimore Orioles. That would be Gunnar Henderson, MVP candidate and Rookie of the Year. On the other hand: I think Rutschman has some things going for him that Henderson does not. First: he’s a catcher, and there’s a dearth of catchers potentially headed to the Hall of Fame between the next two likely inductees (Yadier Molina & Buster Posey) and the players of today. The next best candidate is either Salvador Perez (who I do not think will make it), and JT Realmuto, who could build a case (I think) but I fear will fall short. That leaves an opening for another catcher to make a case: and Rutschman has been really good the past two years, and is really good this year. He’s only 26, but he’s the best offensive catcher in the game and could only get better.
I was unsure whether to include Soto in In the Midst or Speculating. I chose Speculating because of his youth: Soto is only 25 years old. But he’s done a lot: he’s won a batting title and an on-base title, won a World Series (during which he slugged .741) and he walks more than he strikes out…and has done so every year of his career. He’s simply so good as a hitter, it’s hard to comprehend. For now Aaron Judge is better, but Judge is 32: I am skeptical Judge will stay this good for long. Soto is 25, and I think he could get better. I think he lacks Judge’s prodigious power…but I could be very wrong. Expect great things from Soto after he signs the biggest non-Ohtani contract in baseball history.
Obviously Witt has the talent. He has enough power to compete in the Home-Run Derby, he makes enough contact to challenge Steven Kwan for a batting title, and plays electric defense at short. But many players had a ton of talent at 24, the reason why I think Witt will make it is because he has a huge contract. I suspect Witt will wind up playing his entire career in Kansas City, and spending your whole career with one time is correlated with greater support from the electorate. He will be honored, he will be remembered, and a whole city is going to rally behind him as he gets older. That’s the kind of advantage that is difficult to receive at 24.
-Benjamin, J