One downside to the Hall of Fame is you wind up rehashing the same arguments repeatedly. On this year’s ballot alone: seven players have already been debated more than five times. This does not include the Veterans Committee ballot where basically every player on there was already debated ad nauseum by the BBWAA, a Veterans Committee, or both (to say nothing of the dozens to hundreds of journalists and hobbyists like myself). In short everyone who follows the Hall can already recite the arguments for and against: Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, Andruw Jones, Gary Sheffield, Jeff Kent, Manny Ramirez & Omar Vizquel. I personally already wrote several articles on all of them. Part of me wonders if I really have much else to add on any of them anymore.
I try to reconsider each case anew every cycle, and attempt a different frame of reference. I also read a lot of others' research which helps reframe my understanding of the Hall and how baseball itself is evolving. This year my goal is to write less, but hopefully to write more meaningful articles. I will repost a couple of old articles on some candidates when I think I lack anything particularly interesting to add on the topic.
The 2023 Ballot
Let’s start with the rules. Players must meet two minimum qualifications to make the Hall of Fame. First, they must have played 10 years at the Major League level. Second, they must be retired for at least five seasons. Criteria for induction will be based on a players record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played. Players must receive 75% of valid votes in order to earn induction. Players who receive a minimum of 5% on each ballot will be reconsidered for 10 years.
Here are the players on the ballot and a couple sentences about them.
Bobby Abreu, RF, 3rd Ballot Appearance
Bobby Abreu played primarily for the Philadelphia Phillies. He was a good hitter who, as a young man, could also field and run the bases. Although Abreu effectively ground pitchers into the dust, and hit for enough power to play a corner spot, he was largely boring. Abreu’s calling card was walks and doubles; historically two statistics the Hall of Fame has not considered heavily.
Bronson Arroyo, SP, 1st Ballot Appearance
Bronson spent most of his career in Cincinnati and kept finding ways to get batters out. Arroyo pitched until he was 40, and won a Gold Glove in 2010.
Carlos Beltran, CF, 1st Ballot Appearance
A true five tool player, Beltran could do it all: a .280 hitter with power, Beltran also ran the bases well and played Gold Glove defense. As Beltran got older his bat grew more potent until he finally wound up in Houston for his veteran leadership. Unfortunately Carlos became embroiled in a sign stealing scandal during their 2017 World Series run. The scandal cost Beltran his managerial career, and tainted his legacy.
Mark Beuhrle, SP, 3rd Appearance
Mark was a bulldog starting pitcher good for 30 starts and 200 innings every year of his career. Mark pitched over 200 innings 14 seasons in a row, and barely missed 200 in his last season (he fell 1.2 innings short). Mark pitched a perfect game and won a World Series with the Chicago White Sox in 2005.
Matt Cain, SP, 1st Appearance
Cain spent his entire career in San Francisco and won over 100 games, a relatively rare combination in the modern game. Cain was part of two World Series winning clubs in the Bay Area.
R.A. Dickey, SP, 1st Appearance
Dickey became a legend later in his career. A knuckleballer, he came out of nowhere to win the Cy Young Award in 2012 at the age of 37. He never quite rekindled that magic but he managed to translate that success into a World Baseball Classic appearance in 2016.
Jacoby Ellsbury, CF, 1st Appearance
Ellsbury was a speedy leadoff hitter who could steal bases and hit at the top of the order. Jacoby led the league in stolen bases three times. Ellsbury is known for leaving Boston to play for New York, and retired young at 33.
Andre Ethier, LF, 1st Appearance
Ethier was a solid slugger who played his entire career in Dodger blue. He won a Silver Slugger award in 2009 and made two All-Star Games.
J.J. Hardy, SS. 1st Appearance
Hardy was an All-Star shortstop for the Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles. He won three Gold Gloves and a Silver Slugger.
Todd Helton, 1B, 5th Appearance
Helton was a .300 hitter who spent his entire career in Colorado. Todd took advantage of the mountain air to become one of the best hitters in baseball history; and one of the few to bat .300/.400/.500 for his career (batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage). Helton mashed over 590 doubles, won three Gold Gloves and three Silver Sluggers. Helton’s best season came in 2000 when he led the league in batting average, batting .372 and mashed over 400 total bases.
Torii Hunter, CF, 2nd Appearance
Hunter was a dazzling centerfielder who inspired fans with outstanding plays. As Torii aged he became a strong hitter, winning two Silver Sluggers later in his career. Hunter won the Gold Glove Award nine times.
Andruw Jones, CF, 6th Appearance
Jones was a superb centerfielder winning nine Gold Gloves, and an excellent slugger, hitting 400 home runs. Among players with 400 home runs only Ken Griffey, Jr. and Willie Mays won more Gold Gloves (10 and 12 respectively).
Jeff Kent, 2B, 10th Appearance
Jeff Kent was a slugging second baseman who has the career record for home runs at second base with 377 (the lowest for any position). Kent won an MVP Award in 2000, made five All-Star teams and won fourSilver Sluggers.
John Lackey, SP, 1st Appearance
Lackey was a stout starting pitcher who led the league in ERA in 2007. Spending most of his career with the Angels, John won 188 games.
Mike Napoli, 1B, 1st Appearance
Napoli was a strong slugger who spent most of his career in Texas, and made the All-Star game in 2012.
Jhonny Peralta, SS, 1st Appearance
Peralta was a strong hitting shortstop who started his career in Cleveland. Peralta would go on to play in Detroit and St. Louis where he made three All Star games. Peralta was suspended for use of performance enhancing drugs.
Andy Pettitte, SP, 5th Appearance
Pettitte was a bulldog starting pitcher good for 200 innings a year. He spent most of his career in New York where he was a fixture in the playoffs helping New York to five championships over a long career. Pettitte won over 250 games and was part of a core four of players responsible for the last stretch of Yankee dominance in the American League.
Manny Ramirez, LF, 7th Appearance
Manny did one thing in his career: hit. For his career Ramirez hit over .300 and mashed over 500 home runs. He never played for a losing team, Ramirez was feared by all pitchers in the postseason where he tortured the opposition and led the Red Sox to two World Series titles in 2004 and 2007. Manny was suspended twice for use of performance enhancing drugs.
Alex Rodriguez, SS/3B, 2nd Appearance
A-Rod was a young phenom shortstop who could do it all. He stole bases, he fielded his position well, and he hit like few ever could. Over a long career A-Rod won three MVP Awards, made 14 All-Star games, won a World Series in 2009, hit nearly 700 home runs (4th all time), and over 3,000 hits. Alex was suspended twice for PED use.
Francisco Rodriguez, RP, 1st Appearance
K-Rod leaped onto the scene helping Los Angeles win its second World Series title in 2002 and was a crucial part of that team’s bullpen. In 2008 he set the Major League single season record for Saves with 62, and retired with over 400 saves.
Scott Rolen, 3B, 5th Appearance
A superb two way player Scott Rolen could hit the ball and field third base like few ever could. Rolen would win eight Gold Gloves and hit 20 home runs or more 10 times in his career.
Jimmy Rollins, SS, 2nd Appearance
Jimmy was a speedy shortstop who fielded his position and learned to hit the ball. Rollins won four Gold Gloves and an MVP in 2007 after leading the league in many categories including runs, triples and games played.
Gary Sheffield, LF 9th Appearance
Gary Sheffield could hit and always looked on edge. Waiving his bat above his head: Sheffield would rocket the ball all around the ballpark, and rarely struck out. Sheffield won a World Series in 1997 and hit over 500 home runs.
Huston Street, RP, 1st Appearance
Street was a superb closer who started his career in Oakland and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award in 2005 after saving 23 games. In a long career Street would go on to save over 300 more before retiring young at 33.
Omar Vizquel, SS, 6th Appearance
Omar was one of the surest gloves in baseball history winning 11 Gold Gloves, including at the ripe old age of 40. Vizquel stole over 400 bases and hit over 2,800 hits, leading to comparisons to Luis Aparicio. After his career ended Vizquel was accused by his wife of battery and by others for inappropriate sexual conduct.
Billy Wagner, RP, 8th Appearance
A powerful left handed pitcher, Billy was actually right handed. Throwing a ferocious fastball nearly 100 miles an hour: Wagner overpowered hitters over a long career. Saving over 400 games, and setting Major League records for strikeout rate (minimum innings pitched of 800 innings) Wagner ranks 6th all time in Saves.
Jered Weaver, SP, 1st Appearance
Weaver won 150 games and spent nearly his entire career in Los Angeles. He made three All Star teams and nearly won the Cy Young Award.
Jayson Werth, RF, 1st Appearance
Jayson was a strong hitting outfielder who spent most of his career in Washington. He made an All Star team in 2009.
Things to Watch
First, if you are interested in the Hall of Fame follow Ryan Thibodaux on Twitter (if you still follow people on that social media site). Ryan has collected Hall of Fame ballots from voters for years giving us a strong indication on who will, and will not earn induction via the BBWAA. You can follow the tracker, which is updated live on his public Microsoft excel file. This year there are a couple storylines to watch.
The first storyline is Carlos Beltran. Beltran is generally considered a slam dunk Hall of Fame player, but is tainted by his leadership of the Astros during their 2017 World Series. During that season the Astros illegally used technology to steal signs, which has tainted their title in the eyes of many. The last time a player like Beltran came to the ballot was probably Roberto Alomar. Alomar fell just short of induction his first year, and was elected resoundingly his second year on the ballot. We shall see how the BBWAA voters consider Beltran.
The second storyline is the fate of two players who crossed the 50% threshold. Every player who has received 50% of the vote has been eventually inducted except: Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling. These three were not inducted largely due to issues unrelated to their play. The returning players who received over 50% of the vote this cycle are: Scott Rolen, Todd Helton and Billy Wagner. Sometimes when a player reaches majority consensus their cases move rapidly towards induction. This is what happened recently with players like Larry Walker, who went from 54.6% to induction in a year, and Mike Mussina who did this trick in two cycles.
The third storyline (at least for me) is the cases of Bobby Abreu & Jimmy Rollins. Both are relatively new to the ballot and barely remained on the ballot their first few cycles. However, they appear to slowly be gaining support. If either eventually earned induction they would set records for lowest initial percentage on the ballot to earn induction via the BBWAA.
I will have much more to say as the Hall of Fame cycle continues. Until then, Merry Christmas!
-Benjamin, J